Ten timeless tests can help you kick the tires on your strategy,
and kick up the level of strategic dialogue throughout your company.
“What’s the next new thing in strategy?” a senior
executive recently asked Phil Rosenzweig, a professor at IMD,1 in
Switzerland. His response was surprising for someone whose career is devoted to
advancing the state of the art of strategy: “With all respect, I think that’s
the wrong question. There’s always new stuff out there, and most of it’s not
very good. Rather than looking for the next musing, it’s probably better to be
thorough about what we know is true and make sure we do that well.”
Let’s face it: the basic principles that make for good strategy
often get obscured. Sometimes the explanation is a quest for the next new
thing—natural in a field that emerged through the steady accumulation of
frameworks promising to unlock the secret of competitive advantage.2 In
other cases, the culprit is torrents of data, reams of analysis, and piles of
documents that can be more distracting than enlightening.
Ultimately, strategy is a way of thinking, not a procedural
exercise or a set of frameworks. To stimulate that thinking and the dialogue
that goes along with it, we developed a set of tests aimed at helping
executives assess the strength of their strategies. We focused on testing the
strategy itself (in other words, the output of the strategy-development
process), rather than the frameworks, tools, and approaches that generate
strategies, for two reasons. First, companies develop strategy in many
different ways, often idiosyncratic to their organizations, people, and
markets. Second, many strategies emerge over time rather than from a process of
deliberate formulation.3
There are ten tests on our list, and not all are created equal.
The first—“will it beat the market?”—is comprehensive. The remaining nine
disaggregate the picture of a market-beating strategy, though it’s certainly
possible for a strategy to succeed without “passing” all nine of them. This
list may sound more complicated than the three Cs or the five forces of
strategy.4 But
detailed pressure testing, in our experience, helps pinpoint more precisely
where the strategy needs work, while generating a deeper and more fruitful
strategic dialogue.
Those conversations matter, but they often are loose and
disjointed. We heard that, loud and clear, over the past two years in workshops
where we explored our tests with more than 700 senior strategists around the
world. Furthermore, a recent McKinsey Quarterly survey of
2,135 executives indicates that few strategies pass more than three of the
tests (Exhibit 1). In contrast, the reflections of a range of current and
former strategy practitioners (see “How we do it: Strategic tests from
four senior executives”) suggest that the tests described here help formalize
something that the best strategists do quite intuitively.

The tests of a good strategy are timeless in nature. But the
ability to pressure-test a strategy is especially timely now. The financial
crisis of 2008 and the recession that followed made some strategies obsolete,
revealed weaknesses in others, and forced many companies to confront choices
and trade-offs they put off in boom years. At the same time, a shift toward
shorter planning cycles and decentralized strategic decision making are
increasing the utility of a common set of tests.5 All
this makes today an ideal time to kick the tires on your strategy.
Test 1: Will your strategy beat the market?
All companies operate in markets surrounded by customers,
suppliers, competitors, substitutes, and potential entrants, all seeking to
advance their own positions. That process, unimpeded, inexorably drives
economic surplus—the gap between the return a company earns and its cost of
capital—toward zero.
For a company to beat the market by capturing and retaining an
economic surplus, there must be an imperfection that stops or at least slows
the working of the market. An imperfection controlled by a company is a
competitive advantage. These are by definition scarce and fleeting because
markets drive reversion to mean performance (Exhibit 2). The best companies are
emulated by those in the middle of the pack, and the worst exit or undergo
significant reform. As each player responds to and learns from the actions of
others, best practice becomes commonplace rather than a market-beating
strategy. Good strategies emphasize difference—versus your direct competitors,
versus potential substitutes, and versus potential entrants.
Market participants play out the drama of competition on a stage
beset by randomness. Because the evolution of markets is path dependent—that
is, its current state at any one time is the sum product of all previous
events, including a great many random ones—the winners of today are often the
accidents of history. Consider the development of the US tire industry. At its
peak in the mid-1920s, a frenzy of entry had created almost 300 competitors.
Yet by the 1940s, four producers controlled more than 70 percent of the market.
Those winners happened to make retrospectively lucky choices about location and
technology, but at the time it was difficult to tell which companies were truly
fit for the evolving environment. The histories of many other industries, from
aerospace to information technology, show remarkably similar patterns.
To beat the market, therefore, advantages have to be robust and
responsive in the face of onrushing market forces. Few companies, in our
experience, ask themselves if they are beating the market—the pressures of
“just playing along” seem intense enough. But playing along can feel safer than
it is. Weaker contenders win surprisingly often in war when they deploy a
divergent strategy, and the same is true in business.
Test 2: Does your
strategy tap a true source of advantage?
Know your competitive advantage, and you’ve answered the
question of why you make money (and vice versa). Competitive advantage stems
from two sources of scarcity: positional advantages and special capabilities.
Positional advantages are rooted in structurally attractive
markets. By definition, such advantages favor incumbents: they create an
asymmetry between those inside and those outside high walls. For example, in
Australia, two beer makers control 95 percent of the market and enjoy triple
the margins of US brewers. This situation has sustained itself for two decades,
but it wasn’t always so. Beginning in the 1980s, the Australian industry
experienced consolidation. That change in structure was associated with a
change in industry conduct (price growth began outstripping general inflation)
and a change in industry performance (higher profitability). Understanding the
relationship among structure, conduct, and performance is a critical part of
the quest for positional advantage.
Special capabilities, the second source of competitive
advantage, are scarce resources whose possession confers unique benefits. The
most obvious resources, such as drug patents or leases on mineral deposits, we
call “privileged, tradable assets”: they can be bought and sold. A second
category of special capabilities, “distinctive competencies,” consists of
things a company does particularly well, such as innovating or managing
stakeholders. These capabilities can be just as powerful in creating advantage
but cannot be easily traded.
Too often, companies are cavalier about claiming special
capabilities. Such a capability must be critical to a company’s profits and
exist in abundance within it while being scarce outside. As such, special
capabilities tend to be specific in nature and few in number. Companies often
err here by mistaking size for scale advantage or overestimating their ability
to leverage capabilities across markets. They infer special capabilities from
observed performance, often without considering other explanations (such as
luck or positional advantage). Companies should test any claimed capability
advantage vigorously before pinning their hopes on it.
When companies bundle together activities that collectively
create advantage, it becomes more difficult for competitors to identify and
replicate its exact source. Consider Aldi, the highly successful discount
grocery retailer. To deliver its value proposition of lower prices, Aldi has
completely redesigned the typical business system of a supermarket: only 1,500
or so products rather than 30,000, the stocking of one own-brand or private
label rather than hundreds of national brands, and superlean replenishment on
pallets and trolleys, thus avoiding the expensive task of hand stacking
shelves. Given the enormous changes necessary for any supermarket that wishes
to copy the total system, it is extremely difficult to mimic Aldi’s value
proposition.
Finally, don’t forget to take a dynamic view. What can erode
positional advantage? Which special capabilities are becoming vulnerable? There
is every reason to believe that competitors will exploit points of
vulnerability. Assume, like Lewis Carroll’s Red Queen, that you have to run
just to stay in the same place.
Test 3: Is your
strategy granular about where to compete?
The need to beat the market begs the question of which market.
Research shows that the unit of analysis used in determining strategy
(essentially, the degree to which a market is segmented) significantly
influences resource allocation and thus the likelihood of success: dividing the
same businesses in different ways leads to strikingly different capital
allocations.
What is the right level of granularity? Push within reason for
the finest possible objective segmentation of the market: think 30 to 50
segments rather than the more typical 5 or so. Too often, by contrast, the
business unit as defined by the organizational chart becomes the default for
defining markets, reducing from the start the potential scope of strategic
thinking.
Defining and understanding these segments correctly is one of
the most practical things a company can do to improve its strategy. Management
at one large bank attributed fast growth and share gains to measurably superior
customer perceptions and satisfaction. Examining the bank’s markets at a more
granular level suggested that 90 percent of its outperformance could be
attributed to a relatively high exposure to one fast-growing city and to a
presence in a fast-growing product segment. This insight helped the bank avoid
building its strategy on false assumptions about what was and wasn’t working
for the operation as a whole.
In fact, 80 percent of the variance in revenue growth is
explained by choices about where to compete, according to research summarized
in The Granularity of Growth, leaving only 20 percent explained by
choices about how to compete. Unfortunately, this is the exact opposite of the
allocation of time and effort in a typical strategy-development process.
Companies should be shifting their attention greatly toward the “where” and
should strive to outposition competitors by regularly reallocating resources as
opportunities shift within and between segments.
Test 4: Does your
strategy put you ahead of trends?
The emergence of new trends is the norm. But many strategies
place too much weight on the continuation of the status quo because they
extrapolate from the past three to five years, a time frame too brief to
capture the true violence of market forces.
A major innovation or an external shock in regulation, demand,
or technology, for example, can drive a rapid, full-scale industry transition.
But most trends emerge fairly slowly—so slowly that companies generally fail to
respond until a trend hits profits. At this point, it is too late to mount a
strategically effective response, let alone shape the change to your advantage.
Managers typically delay action, held back by sunk costs, an unwillingness to
cannibalize a legacy business, or an attachment to yesterday’s formula for
success. The cost of delay is steep: consider the plight of major travel agency
chains slow to understand the power of online intermediaries. Conversely, for
companies that get ahead of the curve, major market transitions are an
opportunity to rethink their commitments in areas ranging from technology to
distribution and to tailor their strategies to the new environment.
To do so, strategists must take trend analysis seriously. Always
look to the edges. How are early adopters and that small cadre of consumers who
seem to be ahead of the curve acting? What are small, innovative entrants
doing? What technologies under development could change the game? To see which
trends really matter, assess their potential impact on the financial position of
your company and articulate the decisions you would make differently if that
outcome were certain. For example, don’t just stop at an aging population as a
trend—work it through to its conclusion. Which consumer behaviors would change?
Which particular product lines would be affected? What would be the precise
effect on the P&L? And how does that picture line up with today’s
investment priorities?
Test 5: Does your
strategy rest on privileged insights?
Data today can be cheap, accessible, and easily assembled into
detailed analyses that leave executives with the comfortable feeling of possessing
an informed strategy. But much of this is noise and most of it is widely
available to rivals. Furthermore, routinely analyzing readily available data
diverts attention from where insight-creating advantage lies: in the weak
signals buried in the noise.
In the 1990s, when the ability to burn music onto CDs emerged,
no one knew how digitization would play out; MP3s, peer-to-peer file sharing,
and streaming Web-based media were not on the horizon. But one corporation with
a large record label recognized more rapidly than others that the practical
advantage of copyright protection could quickly become diluted if consumers
began copying material. Early recognition of that possibility allowed the CEO
to sell the business at a multiple based on everyone else’s assumption that the
status quo was unthreatened.
Developing proprietary insights isn’t easy. In fact, this is the
element of good strategy where most companies stumble (see sidebar, “The
insight deficit”). A search for problems can help you get started. Create a
short list of questions whose answers would have major implications for the
company’s strategy—for example, “What will we regret doing if the development
of India hiccups or stalls, and what we will not regret?” In doing so, don’t
forget to examine the assumptions, explicit and implicit, behind an established
business model. Do they still fit the current environment?
Another key is to collect new data through field observations or
research rather than to recycle the same industry reports everyone else uses.
Similarly, seeking novel ways to analyze the data can generate powerful new
insights. For example, one supermarket chain we know recently rethought its
store network strategy on the basis of surprising results from a new clustering
algorithm.
Finally, many strategic breakthroughs have their root in a
simple but profound customer insight (usually solving an old problem for the
customer in a new way). In our experience, companies that go out of their way
to experience the world from the customer’s perspective routinely develop
better strategies.
Test 6: Does your
strategy embrace uncertainty?
A central challenge of strategy is that we have to make choices
now, but the payoffs occur in a future environment we cannot fully know or
control. A critical step in embracing uncertainty is to try to characterize exactly
what variety of it you face—a surprisingly rare activity at many companies. Our
work over the years has emphasized four levels of uncertainty. Level one offers
a reasonably clear view of the future: a range of outcomes tight enough to
support a firm decision. At level two, there are a number of identifiable
outcomes for which a company should prepare. At level three, the possible
outcomes are represented not by a set of points but by a range that can be
understood as a probability distribution. Level four features total ambiguity,
where even the distribution of outcomes is unknown.
In our experience, companies oscillate between assuming,
simplistically, that they are operating at level one (and making bold but
unjustified point forecasts) and succumbing to an unnecessarily pessimistic
level-four paralysis. In each case, careful analysis of the situation usually
redistributes the variables into the middle ground of levels two and three.
Rigorously understanding the uncertainty you face starts with
listing the variables that would influence a strategic decision and
prioritizing them according to their impact. Focus early analysis on removing
as much uncertainty as you can—by, for example, ruling out impossible outcomes
and using the underlying economics at work to highlight outcomes that are
either mutually reinforcing or unlikely because they would undermine one
another in the market. Then apply tools such as scenario analysis to the
remaining, irreducible uncertainty, which should be at the heart of your
strategy.
Test 7: Does your
strategy balance commitment and flexibility?
Commitment and flexibility exist in inverse proportion to each
other: the greater the commitment you make, the less flexibility remains. This
tension is one of the core challenges of strategy. Indeed, strategy can be
expressed as making the right trade-offs over time between commitment and
flexibility.
Making such trade-offs effectively requires an understanding of
which decisions involve commitment. Inside any large company, hundreds of
people make thousands of decisions each year. Only a few are strategic: those
that involve commitment through hard-to-reverse investments in long-lasting,
company-specific assets. Commitment is the only path to sustainable competitive
advantage.
In a world of uncertainty, strategy is about not just where and
how to compete but also when. Committing too early can be a leap in the dark.
Being too late is also dangerous, either because opportunities are perishable
or rivals can seize advantage while your company stands on the sidelines.
Flexibility is the essential ingredient that allows companies to make
commitments when the risk/return trade-off seems most advantageous.
A market-beating strategy will focus on just a few crucial, high-commitment
choices to be made now, while leaving flexibility for other such choices to be
made over time. In practice, this approach means building your strategy as a
portfolio comprising three things: big bets, or committed positions aimed at
gaining significant competitive advantage; no-regrets moves, which will pay off
whatever happens; and real options, or actions that involve relatively low
costs now but can be elevated to a higher level of commitment as changing
conditions warrant. You can build underpriced options into a strategy by, for
example, modularizing major capital projects or maintaining the flexibility to
switch between different inputs.
Test 8: Is your strategy
contaminated by bias?
It’s possible to believe honestly that you have a market-beating
strategy when, in fact, you don’t. Sometimes, that’s because forces beyond your
control change. But in other cases, the cause is unintentional fuzzy thinking.
Behavioral economists have identified many characteristics of
the brain that are often strengths in our broader, personal environment but
that can work against us in the world of business decision making. The worst
offenders include overoptimism (our tendency to hope for the best and believe
too much in our own forecasts and abilities), anchoring (tying our valuation of
something to an arbitrary reference point), loss aversion (putting too much
emphasis on avoiding downsides and so eschewing risks worth taking), the
confirmation bias (overweighting information that validates our opinions),
herding (taking comfort in following the crowd), and the champion bias
(assigning to an idea merit that’s based on the person proposing it).
Strategy is especially prone to faulty logic because it relies
on extrapolating ways to win in the future from a complex set of factors
observed today. This is fertile ground for two big inference problems:
attribution error (succumbing to the “halo effect”) and survivorship bias (ignoring
the “graveyard of silent failures”). Attribution error is the false attribution
of success to observed factors; it is strategy by hindsight and assumes that
replicating the actions of another company will lead to similar results.
Survivorship bias refers to an analysis based on a surviving population,
without consideration of those who did not live to tell their tale: this
approach skews our view of what caused success and presents no insights into
what might cause failure—were the survivors just luckier? Case studies have
their place, but hindsight is in reality not 20/20. There are too many unseen
factors.
Developing multiple hypotheses and potential solutions to choose
among is one way to “de-bias” decision making. Too often, the typical drill is
to develop a promising hypothesis and put a lot of effort into building a fact
base to validate it. In contrast, it is critical to bring fresh eyes to the
issues and to maintain a culture of challenge, in which the obligation to
dissent is fostered.
The decision-making process can also be de-biased by, for
example, specifying objective decision criteria in advance and examining the
possibility of being wrong. Techniques such as the “premortem assessment”
(imagining yourself in a future where your decision turns out to have been
mistaken and identifying why that might have been so) can also be useful.
Test 9: Is there
conviction to act on your strategy?
This test and the one that follows aren’t strictly about the
strategy itself but about the investment you’ve made in implementing it—a
distinction that in our experience quickly becomes meaningless because the two,
inevitably, become intertwined. Many good strategies fall short in
implementation because of an absence of conviction in the organization,
particularly among the top team, where just one or two nonbelievers can
strangle strategic change at birth.
Where a change of strategy is needed, that is usually because
changes in the external environment have rendered obsolete the assumptions
underlying a company’s earlier strategy. To move ahead with implementation, you
need a process that openly questions the old assumptions and allows managers to
develop a new set of beliefs in tune with the new situation. This goal is not
likely to be achieved just via lengthy reports and presentations. Nor will the
social processes required to absorb new beliefs—group formation, building
shared meaning, exposing and reconciling differences, aligning and accepting
accountability—occur in formal meetings.
CEOs and boards should not be fooled by the warm glow they feel
after a nice presentation by management. They must make sure that the whole
team actually shares the new beliefs that support the strategy. This
requirement means taking decision makers on a journey of discovery by creating
experiences that will help them viscerally grasp mismatches that may exist
between what the new strategy requires and the actions and behavior that have
brought them success for many years. For example, visit plants and customers or
tour a country your company plans to enter, so that the leadership team can
personally meet crucial stakeholders. Mock-ups, video clips, and virtual
experiences also can help.
The result of such an effort should be a support base of
influencers who feel connected to the strategy and may even become evangelists
for it. Because strategy often emanates from the top, and CEOs are accustomed
to being heeded, this commonsense step often gets overlooked, to the great
detriment of the strategy.
Test 10: Have you
translated your strategy into an action plan?
In implementing any new strategy, it’s imperative to define
clearly what you are moving from and where you are moving to with
respect to your company’s business model, organization, and capabilities.
Develop a detailed view of the shifts required to make the move, and ensure
that processes and mechanisms, for which individual executives must be
accountable, are in place to effect the changes. Quite simply, this is an
action plan. Everyone needs to know what to do. Be sure that each major
“from–to shift” is matched with the energy to make it happen. And since the
totality of the change often represents a major organizational transformation,
make sure you and your senior team are drawing on the large body of research
and experience offering solid advice on change management—a topic beyond the
scope of this article!
Finally, don’t forget to make sure your ongoing resource allocation
processes are aligned with your strategy. If you want to know what it actually
is, look where the best people and the most generous budgets are—and be
prepared to change these things significantly. Effort spent aligning the budget
with the strategy will pay off many times over.
As we’ve discussed
the tests with hundreds of senior executives at many of the world’s largest
companies, we’ve come away convinced that a lot of these topics are part of the
strategic dialogue in organizations. But we’ve also heard time and again that discussion
of such issues is often, as one executive in Japan recently told us, “random,
simultaneous, and extremely confusing.” Our hope is that the tests will prove a
simple and effective antidote: a means of quickly identifying gaps in
executives’ strategic thinking, opening their minds toward new ways of using
strategy to create value, and improving the quality of the strategy-development
process itself.
1 International Institute for Management
Development.
2 For a rich account of strategy’s birth
and growth as a field, see Walter Kiechel, The Lords of Strategy,
Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 2010.
3 For a classic statement of the idea that
strategies are more emergent than planned, see Henry Mintzberg, “Crafting
strategy,” Harvard Business Review, 1987, July–August, Volume 65,
Number 4, pp. 66–75.
4 The three Cs and the five forces are
seminal strategy frameworks. The three Cs (competitors, customers, and company)
were articulated by retired McKinsey partner Kenichi Ohmae in The Mind
of the Strategist (McGraw-Hill, 1982). The five forces (barriers to
entry, buyer power, supplier power, the threat of substitutes, and the degree
of rivalry) were set forth by Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter
in Competitive Strategy(Free Press, 1998).